Handicapping the 2008 Presidential Sweepstakes Race

Republican Politics, American Style
Published February 15th in Dublins Metro Eireann Newspaper
By Charles Laffiteau

Welcome to the latest instalment of the “Sport of Kings”, thoroughbred racing fans. Today we are coming to you live, from the site of the 2008 United States Presidential Sweepstakes race, which is held every four years at different racecourses around the country.

This year’s purse is the largest in the history of the world’s richest thoroughbred stakes race. The handlers of these horses had to put up an estimated 25 million dollars apiece just to get their racehorses entered into one of the two preliminary races, the Grade II Elephant-Pachyderm Stakes and Grade II Donkey-Ass Stakes. Given the crowded field in both preliminary races, this will also be the most expensive race for the Presidential Sweepstakes crown in history, with total expenditures likely to top one billion dollars before we announce a winner in the final race of the 2008 season.

The winners of the two preliminary graded stakes races must also face each other in the Grade I finale, the US Presidential Sweepstakes race on November 4th 2008. In this race, the winning thoroughbred’s handlers will have to pony up an additional 250 to 300 million dollars for each of their respective entries.

Oops, the gun just sounded and they’re off in what appears to be another early start for the two preliminary Grade II stakes races. As the horses near the first turn, Edwards appears to have the early lead by a half a length over Clinton and Obama in the Donkey-Ass race, while on the course next door, Giuliani is running neck and neck with McCain in the Elephant-Pachyderm Stakes.

I must apologize for being caught unawares by the early start to the two preliminary races, which seem to start earlier every time we begin another four year race cycle. But since this is an extremely long race involving 2 complete circuits of the racecourse, I think I still have time to take a few moments to handicap some of these thoroughbred race horses for you.

If the history of past preliminary stakes races is any kind of indicator, then the current positions of the front runners is by no means indicative of how these thoroughbreds will finish these races. These are, after all, races where endurance and stamina mean just as much as pedigrees, breeding and training. Oftentimes a dark horse or long shot will emerge from the pack during the course of the race and run down the early betting line favourites long before they reach the finish line. Clinton did this in the 1992 Donkey-Ass Stakes race.

On a few other occasions some of these preliminary races, as well as the occasional Presidential Sweepstakes race, have gone right down to the wire resulting in a photo finish, with the final winner determined by a decision of the race stewards, also known as the judges of the US Supreme Court.

Such was the case as recently as 2002 in the US Presidential Sweepstakes finale. In that race, even though it appeared that the Donkey-Ass Stakes winner Gore had beaten Elephant-Pachyderm Stakes winner Bush by a nose, the race stewards saw the results differently and named Bush the winner in one of the closest Presidential Sweepstakes finishes in recent memory.

Another interesting note about the 2008 Presidential Sweepstakes race is that while the winner of the race often goes on to win the same race again 4 years later, it has been over 180 years since the Presidential Sweepstakes race has seen successive winners in 2 races three times in succession. Since Clinton won the race in 1992 and 1996 followed by Bush in 2000 and 2004, (if history is any guide) one would have to bet that whoever wins the race in 2008 will not repeat as the winner in 2012. Monroe was the first and only Presidential Sweepstakes winner to have done so, back in the early days of Presidential Sweepstakes’ history, when he won in both 1817 and 1821.

I wonder how many of these thoroughbred’s handlers are aware that, based on many past performances in follow up races 4 years later, they face long odds of being a repeat winner in 2012. In light of this fact, wouldn’t it be smarter to sit out the 2008 race and wait to run in 2012, thereby increasing your odds of repeating as a winner again in 2016?

Of course, one reason many handlers may have overlooked this little bit of history, was because they were focusing so much on the fact that this will also be the first Presidential race in 80 years that will be without either the previous race winner or his stable mate (aka Vice President) running in one of the preliminaries. These experienced past winners usually begin the season as odds on favourites in the preliminary stakes races.

That is why I encourage all you bettors to do your homework and make sure you thoroughly investigate each prospective horse before making any wagers. Years ago the motto around many betting establishments was “bet early and bet often”, which sometimes resulted in strong showings by particular horses in specific areas of the country. This old betting practice helped a thoroughbred named Kennedy nip Elephant-Pachyderm Stakes winner, Nixon, at the wire in the 1960 Presidential Sweepstakes race.

While this practice has been on the wane since that 1960 race, bettors are still entitled to make single wagers in both the preliminary and final races and I want to encourage each and every one of them to do so. Not all citizens of the world have the same rights and privileges as we do and I’m afraid we may one day lose this privilege if we continue to fail to exercise it.

Many states have gone to great lengths to stem the constant decline in individual bets by allowing bettors to place their wagers as much as 30 days before the race. As a result, there is simply no excuse anymore for not betting on these races. For my part, I won’t even discuss who won or lost these races with any bettor who fails to place a wager on them. I think I will close for now and come back next week to handicap the race contestants for you.